US and Iran have been going through a long process of negotiations of a nuclear agreement by which US was going to lift sanctions and develop peacefully free of advent of nuclear programs and enrichment.
In the last two years, the trump admin imposed primary and secondary sanctions to cripple and have an no last resort negotiation tactics with Iran. The nail on the coffin has been the authorized drone killing of Qassim Soleimani, the Iranian major general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has the potentiality of starting a war. This operation was not a covert or a secret mission and has been very open invitation to Iran for a challenge. This action can be deemed clear to have taken a different path than the dialogue and has taken the challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader for Iran.
Iran has avoided the Al Kurds force, which is responsible for the Iran’s overseas clandestine operations, for the last 4 decades, there has been no direct confrontation with Iran and Israel for that time. The strike also killed the Iraqi miltia commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was the deputy leader of the Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi which will leave a vacuum in the organizational hierarchy of the militia.
The direct confrontation of Iran in the Middle east with Saudi Arabia or US and its allies is totally out of question as it has avoided so for the last 4 decades. Interestingly, this will lead to a birth of an intensified proxy war being fought in the realms of Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Lebanon to a certain extent.
The possible options of eventuality are expected to revolve around below areas in the coming decade.
1. Trump’s plan is concrete to bring back the troops home as it has happened in Syria and complete the peace process handover to Afghanistan, while recalling the troops is a sure shot speculation which might materialize within a quarter. The response to this action and the discussion with Taliban and Afghanistan triangle will have a possibility of an unhappy “divorce settlement”, it will also lead to the spill-over effect of the regional unrest. Make no mistake there will be an increased unrest and possibly a regime change in the region. Trump’s re-election campaign could also be around the ‘Deal of the century’ for a peace breaking treaty in the region for Israel and Palestine. This will surely result in some serious escalation resulting in unrest in the Gaza strip. It will be interesting to note the policy of the countries influencing the geopolitical mood of the region. A lot will also be revolving around the re-election campaign of Trump in the upcoming US November 2020.
2. The US administration will have to prepare for a scenario of increased cold war in the Middle East, which it has be a strong part of considering the geopolitical influence of Middle east in the global politics of energy. Its external political strategy around the Saudis will be tested in the wake of increased risk of military deployment of US forces in the coming years.
3. Covert operations. An increase in covert operations will be seen from both the blocks fueling the cold war, which will require increasing funding to be deployed in the area. It is to be seen how the US would want to balance the attention of resources and political maneuvering between Middle East and rising African countries in the coming decade. The increasing focus of the Chinese into Africa and its operations would become geopolitical issue for US and its allies to manage the rising Africa, its aspirational growth and the opportunity to be an ally and access to the markets of Africa and be part of the largest growing population for the next decade.
4. Systematic planned long process of assassination against US and its allies by cuts by thousand slices strategy. We will be seeing an increased aggression in the militia activities in the lands of Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan and Lebanon. We also might see resurgence of attacks in other Islamic countries such as Afghanistan and North West frontier Pakistan more so following the Sunni-Shiite century old rivalries. The militant groups such as Taliban, Daesh, Hamas, Hezebollah, Al-Qaeda will see a renewed activity and funding to disrupt the region’s peace in the coming decade.
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The next decade will see a fervent of activities of gulf escalation, risking international peace and security situation in the region. It will also demand more funding for the humanitarian groups such as UN Programmes and Red Cross and others for field budgets for the times to come. As global economies, we should always remember that such humongous budgets also play a pivotal role in diverting focus from health and education focused developments in the region hampering global growth and well-being for decades.
While these possibilities play out in reality, It is also important to keep an eye on the developments around the Iran nuclear deal, US decision to pull out of the deal and its ramifications in the Europe. Each of these topics are a strong backdrop and forms a story of its own but the puzzle completes when as an economist/ geopolitical observer you tie them together in the perspective of global power hegemony for decades to come.
Readers please let me know what you would want me to write on. Sometimes with so much going on, I lose focus on the relevance of what readers are interested to read about.
